Dear Guy:

Enclosed are copies of the first two test pages that I sent you before.  Your scores on the previous two pages were, as you will remember, very good, 14 and 13 hits respectively.

If you would complete 10 pages with an average of 13 hits per page, that would give an extremely significant score (Odds against chance 100,000:1), and an average of 12 hits per page would still be pretty good (Odds against chance 400:1).

The "Odds against chance" tell how unlikely it is to get such a high score by pure luck or chance.  Any value above 1000 would give very good evidence for real psychic effects.

The following table shows how drastically the "Odds against chance" increase with the average success rate:

Table: For experiment with 10 pages (20 runs per page)

Average Number of
Hits Per Page                       Odds Against Chance
12                                        400        : 1 (good)
12.5                                     5000      : 1 (very good)
13                                        100,000 : 1 (very good)
 

Table: For experiment with 20 pages (20 runs per page)

Average Number of
Hits Per Page                       Odds Against Chance
11                                        40                    : 1 (good)
11.5                                     700                  : 1 (good)
12                                        30,000             : 1 (good)
12.5                                     3,000,000        : 1 (very good)
13                                        1,000,000,000 : 1 (very good)

Helmut Schmidt

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